Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.036810 0.042014 0.047729 0.054479 0.062240 0.070894 0.081291
2024-12-29 0.029362 0.036535 0.045152 0.056296 0.070370 0.087613 0.110431
2025-01-05 0.023871 0.031458 0.041135 0.054440 0.072347 0.095743 0.128838
2025-01-12 0.020383 0.028140 0.038525 0.053535 0.074821 0.104146 0.147992
2025-01-19 0.017367 0.024939 0.035503 0.051437 0.075068 0.109146 0.162604
2025-01-26 0.016138 0.024030 0.035467 0.053412 0.081158 0.122915 0.191436
2025-02-02 0.015102 0.023240 0.035450 0.055313 0.087221 0.137169 0.222624
2025-02-09 0.014205 0.022535 0.035439 0.057146 0.093279 0.151957 0.256354
2025-02-16 0.012966 0.021141 0.034178 0.056784 0.095653 0.160929 0.281306
2025-02-23 0.012028 0.020129 0.033405 0.057103 0.099127 0.172003 0.311108
2025-03-02 0.011012 0.018876 0.032096 0.056335 0.100575 0.179624 0.335466
2025-03-09 0.010465 0.018368 0.031992 0.057645 0.105822 0.194518 0.375119
2025-03-16 0.009646 0.017323 0.030882 0.057080 0.107670 0.203560 0.405081
2025-03-23 0.009265 0.017033 0.031100 0.059010 0.114471 0.222810 0.458081
2025-03-30 0.008401 0.015763 0.029388 0.057058 0.113446 0.226553 0.479400
2025-04-06 0.007757 0.014848 0.028254 0.056108 0.114290 0.234087 0.509665
2025-04-13 0.007031 0.013709 0.026584 0.053904 0.112296 0.235479 0.526509
2025-04-20 0.006850 0.013628 0.026980 0.055979 0.119546 0.257291 0.592495
2025-04-27 0.006669 0.013528 0.027327 0.057976 0.126834 0.279996 0.663647
2025-05-04 0.006489 0.013414 0.027629 0.059902 0.134163 0.303612 0.740247
2025-05-11 0.006107 0.012843 0.026921 0.059521 0.136182 0.315205 0.788554
2025-05-18 0.005819 0.012445 0.026548 0.059857 0.139899 0.331211 0.850324
2025-05-25 0.005458 0.011859 0.025716 0.059050 0.140797 0.340483 0.895680